An individual’s risk for developing psychosis can be measured as accurately as a prognosis for heart disease and cancer, according to a new Yale-led study published July 1 in the American Journal of Psychiatry.
The new risk calculator assesses the risk of developing psychosis after a person experiences an early warning sign of schizophrenia — such as hearing a voice calling out the individual’s name even though he or she is aware no one is there.
“Right now, individuals and their families asking for feedback and advice after such episodes are only told about the average risk — that 15% to 25% of this group will go on to develop psychosis,” said Tyrone Cannon, professor of psychology and psychiatry at Yale and principal investigator of the study. “But with this tool, doctors can give people who have experienced early warning symptoms of schizophrenia a much more individualized assessment of risk.”
Cannon and colleagues at eight trial sites analyzed data from interviews with 596 subjects who were diagnosed with Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome — that is, people who have experienced some recent changes in perception and/or developed unusual thoughts. These individuals recognize their perceptions or beliefs are not based in reality and do not meet definition of psychosis.
In collaboration with investigators at the Cleveland Clinic, Cannon and colleagues then developed a risk calculator that analyzes known risk factors for schizophrenia. They followed up with the subjects two years later.
They found that 16% went on to develop psychosis. Those at the greatest risk of developing psychosis were individuals who were younger when their initial symptoms began and had higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning skills, and slower speed of mental processing.
An individual’s level of risk is determined by his or her profile across these five factors, together with family history of schizophrenia and experiencing stressful or traumatic life events.
Full story available below:
Risk Calculator available Below:
Here is the schizophrenia / psychosis risk calculator - perhaps of use with siblings of those who have schizophrenia:
http://riskcalc.org:3838/napls/
More info on the Risk Calculator below:
From:
A new risk calculator predicts the probability of high-risk patients converting to full psychosis within 2 years, new research shows.
Although roughly 20% to 35% of persons with symptoms convert to psychosis within 2 years, risk estimations based on a patient’s individual symptom profile are more accurate, the authors, led by Tyrone Cannon, PhD, of Yale University, in New Haven, Connecticut, note.
“Like a person at risk for cardiovascular disease or cancer, an individual with a prodromal risk syndrome is more interested in receiving information pertinent to his or her personal risk profile than information about the population at large,” they write.
“Publication of this risk calculator is intended to assist clinicians in providing such personalized risk estimates.”